2016 Economic Calendar
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Factory Orders  
Released On 12/6/2016 10:00:00 AM For Oct, 2016
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Factory Orders - M/M change0.3 %0.6 %2.7 %2.5 % to 3.4 %2.7 %

October was a very strong month for the factory sector as durable goods orders rose 2.7 percent. Aircraft (both civilian and defense) was October's special strength, excluding which the gain in orders falls sharply but still comes in at a very solid 0.7 percent. Another plus in the report is a 3 tenths upward revision to September to plus 0.6 percent in what now is one of the better months of the year.

Core capital goods orders (nondefense excluding aircraft) did rise in October but not much, up only 0.2 percent and well short of offsetting a 1.5 percent decline in September. Weakness here points to trouble for business investment in the fourth-quarter GDP report. And shipments for this category have gotten off to a bad start in the quarter, down 0.1 percent in October.

But other readings are favorable including a useful 0.4 percent rise in total shipments and a 0.7 percent gain for unfilled orders which had been in long contraction. Inventories are not a problem in the sector, unchanged in the month with the stock-to-sales ratio holding at 1.34.

Advance readings on factory conditions in November have been mostly positive which, together with this report and a respectable 0.3 percent gain for the manufacturing component of the industrial production report point to year-end momentum for a sector that has otherwise had a flat 2016.

Consensus Outlook
Factory orders for October are expected to rise 2.7 percent in line with strong gains for durable goods, data for the latter released a week earlier and offering rare good news for the struggling factory sector. Factory shipments have been holding up but at the expense of unfilled orders which have contracted for four straight months.

Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month.  Why Investors Care
Even though monthly shipment data fluctuate less than new orders, both series show underlying trends more clearly by looking at year-over-year changes. In 2005 for example,new orders rose more rapidly than shipments due to large gains in aircraft orders. Aircraft orders have a long lead to shipment.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2016 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/43/34/45/46/37/58/49/210/511/312/6
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct

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