2016 Economic Calendar
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Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey  
Released On 2/18/2016 8:30:00 AM For Feb, 2016
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level-3.5 -2.5 -7.5  to 2.8 -2.8 

Highlights
The Philly Fed report, much like Tuesday's Empire State report, is pointing to continuing trouble for the nation's factory sector. The general business conditions index came in at minus 2.8 to extend a long run of negative readings. New orders, at minus 5.3, have also been stuck in the minus column as have unfilled orders, at minus 12.7. Shipments, at plus 2.5, are positive for a second straight month but aren't likely to hold above zero for very long given the weakness in orders. Employment is in the contraction column for a second straight month at minus 5.0 with the workweek also posting a second month of contraction at minus 12.9. Manufacturers in the region continue to draw down inventories, to indicate sagging expectations, with the 6-month outlook down nearly 2 points to 17.3 which is still in the plus column but very low for this reading. Price data continue hold in the negative column. This report is a disappointment and belies yesterday's manufacturing strength in the industrial production report.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to extend a long series of declines with the Econoday forecast calling for a minus 2.5 February headline. At minus 3.5 in January, last month's reading was the fifth negative score in a row with the new orders index improving but still negative, at minus 1.4. Inventories have been down in this report and the six-month outlook has been easing, both pointing to defensive business expectations.

Definition
The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey is a good leading indicator for the index of industrial production. It is reported in the third week of the month and thus has a lead time of nearly three weeks.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2016 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/212/183/174/215/196/167/218/189/1510/2011/1712/15
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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