2017 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 1/27/2017 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2016
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change-4.6 %-4.8 %2.6 %1.5 % to 7.0 %-0.4 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change-1.9 %1.6 %
Ex-transportation - M/M0.5 %1.0 %0.5 %0.2 % to 0.8 %0.5 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr1.8 %2.5 %3.5 %
Core capital goods - M/M change0.9 %1.5 %0.8 %
Core capital goods - Yr/Yr-3.2 %-2.3 %2.8 %

Highlights
Civilian aircraft is the usual culprit behind volatility in the durable goods report but not in December, as defense aircraft makes a second straight appearance. A 64 percent downswing in orders for defense aircraft reversed a similar upswing in November and pulled down total durable goods to a much lower-than-expected 0.4 percent decline in December. But when excluding transportation equipment, orders actually hit the consensus at plus 0.5 percent.

The strength in the report is centered in capital goods where core orders (nondefense ex-aircraft) posted a strong 0.8 percent gain with November's increase revised 6 tenths higher to 1.5 percent. These gains underscore the increase in the business investment component in this morning's fourth-quarter GDP report and point to momentum for this closely watched area going into the first quarter.

A significant negative in the report is a 0.6 percent decline in unfilled orders which continue to shrink. Lack of work to do is a negative for employment. Total shipments were strong in December at 1.4 percent with core capital goods also strong at 1.0 percent.

Hard data in sum on the factory sector have not been favorable showing a fizzle, not a burst, at year end. But there are solid hints of strength ahead in this report as well as in regional manufacturing reports which have been on the rise.

Consensus Outlook
Durable goods orders have swung very sharply the last two months, down 4.6 percent in November following a 4.8 percent rise in October. Ex-transportation orders, which strip out monthly swings in aircraft, have been coming alive, up 0.5 percent and up 0.9 percent the last two reports. Core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-aircraft) showed significant strength in November, up 0.9 percent, but on trend have not been strong. The Econoday consensus for durables orders is a swing higher of 2.6 percent with ex-transportation showing another month of consistent strength at 0.5 percent.

Definition
Durable goods orders are new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory hard goods. The report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. The advance release provides early estimates and is revised about a week later by the factory orders report.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/272/273/244/275/266/267/278/259/2710/2511/2212/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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