2017 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 4/27/2017 8:30:00 AM For Mar, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change1.7 %2.3 %1.1 %-0.3 % to 4.3 %0.7 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change5.0 %4.5 %5.8 %
Ex-transportation - M/M0.4 %0.7 %0.4 %0.0 % to 1.2 %-0.2 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr4.6 %5.1 %4.6 %
Core capital goods - M/M change-0.1 %0.1 %0.4 %0.1 % to 1.0 %0.2 %
Core capital goods - Yr/Yr2.7 %3.1 %3.0 %

Aircraft lifted durable orders throughout the first quarter and made for a very solid 0.7 percent rise in March. But the story is different when excluding civilian aircraft as the ex-transportation reading fell 0.2 percent which is below Econoday's low estimate. And core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) are soft, up only 0.2 percent for only half the gain that was expected.

Civilian aircraft orders during March jumped 8.7 percent which comes on top of monthly gains of 75 percent and 188 percent in the prior two months. Aircraft orders did lag last year but this rate of gain is not likely to be sustained. A modest plus in the report comes from shipments of core capital goods (in contrast to orders) which rose 0.4 percent in what will be constructive for the nonresidential investment component of tomorrow's first-quarter GDP report.

But the gain for capital goods shipments, given the weakness in underlying orders, will only steal from April and second-quarter shipments. Outside of aircraft, the factory sector, held back by weak foreign demand, has not lived up to the enormous acceleration being indicated by a host of regional reports led by the ISM and Philly Fed.

Consensus Outlook
Aircraft has been giving a significant boost so far this year to durable goods orders which otherwise have been soft and not living up to the surge underway in advance reports. Both factory hours and manufacturing production fell sharply in March which are bad omens for April. Yet Boeing orders were unusually strong in March and forecasters see durable goods orders rising 1.1 percent with the ex-transportation consensus, however, showing less strength at a moderate 0.4 percent. Orders for core capital goods, which have been sliding and pointing to weak business investment, are also expected to rise 0.4 percent.

Durable goods orders are new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory hard goods. The report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. The advance release provides early estimates and is revised about a week later by the factory orders report.  Why Investors Care
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/272/273/244/275/266/267/278/259/2710/2511/2212/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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