2017 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 4/27/2017 8:30:00 AM For Mar, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change1.7 %2.3 %1.1 %-0.3 % to 4.3 %0.7 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change5.0 %4.5 %5.8 %
Ex-transportation - M/M0.4 %0.7 %0.4 %0.0 % to 1.2 %-0.2 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr4.6 %5.1 %4.6 %
Core capital goods - M/M change-0.1 %0.1 %0.4 %0.1 % to 1.0 %0.2 %
Core capital goods - Yr/Yr2.7 %3.1 %3.0 %

Aircraft lifted durable orders throughout the first quarter and made for a very solid 0.7 percent rise in March. But the story is different when excluding civilian aircraft as the ex-transportation reading fell 0.2 percent which is below Econoday's low estimate. And core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) are soft, up only 0.2 percent for only half the gain that was expected.

Civilian aircraft orders during March jumped 8.7 percent which comes on top of monthly gains of 75 percent and 188 percent in the prior two months. Aircraft orders did lag last year but this rate of gain is not likely to be sustained. A modest plus in the report comes from shipments of core capital goods (in contrast to orders) which rose 0.4 percent in what will be constructive for the nonresidential investment component of tomorrow's first-quarter GDP report.

But the gain for capital goods shipments, given the weakness in underlying orders, will only steal from April and second-quarter shipments. Outside of aircraft, the factory sector, held back by weak foreign demand, has not lived up to the enormous acceleration being indicated by a host of regional reports led by the ISM and Philly Fed.

Consensus Outlook
Aircraft has been giving a significant boost so far this year to durable goods orders which otherwise have been soft and not living up to the surge underway in advance reports. Both factory hours and manufacturing production fell sharply in March which are bad omens for April. Yet Boeing orders were unusually strong in March and forecasters see durable goods orders rising 1.1 percent with the ex-transportation consensus, however, showing less strength at a moderate 0.4 percent. Orders for core capital goods, which have been sliding and pointing to weak business investment, are also expected to rise 0.4 percent.

Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.

Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.

The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.

In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
 Why Investors Care
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/272/273/244/275/266/267/278/259/2710/2511/2212/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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