2017 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 5/26/2017 8:30:00 AM For Apr, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change0.7 %2.3 %-1.0 %-3.0 % to 2.0 %-0.7 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change5.8 %6.5 %0.9 %
Ex-transportation - M/M-0.2 %0.8 %0.4 %0.1 % to 1.0 %-0.4 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr4.6 %6.2 %4.9 %
Core capital goods - M/M change0.2 %0.0 %0.2 %0.2 % to 0.6 %0.0 %
Core capital goods - Yr/Yr3.0 %2.6 %2.9 %

Yet another piece of the second-quarter puzzle is not favorable. Durable goods orders, down 0.7 percent in April, do not confirm the month's big jump in industrial production nor all the strength in the regional factory reports. Aircraft is not a factor in today's report as the ex-transportation reading is also negative, at minus 0.4 percent which is well below Econoday's low estimate. Also below the estimate are orders for core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) which came in unchanged following a downward revised unchanged reading in March.

Manufacturing output soared in the industrial production report but shipments in this report fell 0.3 percent and follow March's 0.1 percent decline. Shipments of core capital goods, which are an important input into second-quarter GDP, also fell 0.1 percent. And the weakness in capital goods orders does not point to shipment strength in June or July.

Inventories edged only 0.1 percent higher but, given the decline in shipments, the inventory-to-shipments ratio moved one notch higher to a less lean 1.69. A plus in the report is unfilled orders which, after long contraction, have put together two straight positive months, at 0.2 and 0.3 percent.

Another positive is an upward revision to March, but that was back in the first quarter which was already weak anyway. There really aren't a lot of positives in today's report. The nation's factory sector, despite recovery in energy equipment, is not showing the promise indicated by sentiment reports. Weak foreign demand remains a likely suspect for the struggling performance.

Consensus Outlook
Aircraft orders lifted durables throughout the first quarter and were the backbone for March's solid 0.7 percent rise. But the story is different when excluding civilian aircraft as the ex-transportation reading fell 0.2 percent. Forecasters see the aircraft factor playing out in April, with the consensus for overall durable orders at minus 1.0 percent but ex-transportation at plus 0.4 percent. Core capital goods are not expected to show much strength, at a consensus gain of only 0.2 percent.

Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.

Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.

The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.

In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
 Why Investors Care
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/272/273/244/275/266/267/278/259/2710/2511/2212/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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