2017 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 7/27/2017 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change-1.1 %-0.1 %3.5 %1.5 % to 6.0 %6.5 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change2.7 %3.8 %16.1 %
Ex-transportation - M/M0.1 %0.6 %0.4 %0.2 % to 0.8 %0.2 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr5.5 %6.1 %6.8 %
Core capital goods - M/M change-0.2 %0.7 %0.3 %0.1 % to 1.0 %-0.1 %
Core capital goods - Yr/Yr5.0 %6.0 %5.6 %

Aircraft orders don't dribble out day by day, they come in big monthly batches and an especially big one in June that masks otherwise mixed results. Total orders surged 6.5 percent to top Econoday's consensus for a 3.5 percent gain and high estimate for 6.0 percent. But when excluding transportation equipment that includes a 131 percent surge in civilian aircraft, orders could manage only a 0.2 percent gain which is below the 0.4 percent consensus and just making the low estimate.

But tipping the balance back in favor of strength is a 1 point upward revision to May where the decline is now only 0.1 percent. The ex-transportation reading gets a 1/2 point upward revision to a 0.6 percent gain with core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) really showing strength, now at plus 0.7 percent vs a small initially reported decline.

But the readings for June aren't that great with core capital goods moving back into the negative column at minus 0.1 percent. Other areas of weakness include motor vehicles which have been suffering and where the June decline is a sizable 0.6 percent.

For the second-quarter as a whole, however, June's non-aircraft weakness is offset by the big gains in May. And specifically for Friday's GDP report, a 0.4 percent June rise in inventories will be a solid plus with a 0.2 percent rise for shipments of core capital goods, that follows 0.4 and 0.2 percent gains in May and April, a modest plus.

But for forward momentum, the weakness in June doesn't point to building strength for July. Durable orders have not been consistently strong this year though there are more favorable aspects to today's report than unfavorable with the second-half outlook for the up-and-down factory sector now a bit more upbeat.

Consensus Outlook
Durable goods orders have been running soft with back-to-back declines in May and April. But June is expected to see a major bounce back with the consensus at 3.5 percent. The vast bulk of the gain, however, is expected to come from aircraft as the ex-transportation consensus is much more modest, at a moderate 0.4 percent gain. Orders for core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) are also expected to show moderate strength with a 0.3 percent gain.

Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.

Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.

The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.

In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
 Why Investors Care
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/272/273/244/275/266/267/278/259/2710/2511/2212/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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