2017 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 8/25/2017 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change6.5 %6.4 %-5.8 %-8.3 % to -1.9 %-6.8 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change16.1 %16.3 %4.2 %
Ex-transportation - M/M0.2 %0.1 %0.4 %-0.1 % to 0.8 %0.5 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr6.8 %6.9 %5.6 %
Core capital goods - M/M change-0.1 %0.0 %0.5 %0.2 % to 0.5 %0.4 %
Core capital goods - Yr/Yr5.6 %5.8 %3.5 %

Highlights
Durable goods orders came in as billed with a steep aircraft-related decline for the headline, at minus 6.8 percent, contrasting with solid gains for ex-transportation at 0.5 percent and core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) at 0.4 percent. A special plus in the report, and one that will lift GDP, is a sharp pickup in shipments of core capital goods, up 1.0 percent in July with June revised 2 tenths higher to 0.6 percent.

Total shipments rose 0.4 percent with inventories keeping a balanced pace, up 0.3 percent. A negative in the report is a 0.3 percent decline in unfilled orders that follows, however, June's 1.3 percent surge.

For aircraft, which has picked up this year, orders fell 82 percent in July vs June's enormous 227 percent jump. Orders for defense aircraft, up nearly 50 percent, are a positive in July's data as is electrical equipment, up 2.6 percent in a good sign for construction. Computers and fabricated metals also show gains. Negatives include a 1.2 percent order decline for vehicles that follows a 0.7 percent decline in June and a 1.4 percent decline for machinery orders that belies the month's strength for core capital goods.

But positives are definitely the theme of today's report, one that helps offset last week's unexpected decline in manufacturing production and supports the enormous strength being signaled by advance regional reports. The economy may very well get a solid second-half boost from what has been an improving factory sector.

Recent History Of This Indicator
A striking monthly decline of 5.8 percent is the call for July durable goods orders in a plunge, however, that would not completely reverse June's aircraft-boosted gain of 6.5 percent. And underneath the headline solid strength is expected with ex-transportation orders up 0.4 percent and with core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) predicted to show new life with a 0.5 percent gain. If this report meets expectations, the dip in July manufacturing production would be forgotten and expectations would build for second-half factory momentum.

Definition
Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.

Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.

The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.

In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/272/273/244/275/266/267/278/259/2710/2511/2212/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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