2017 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 10/25/2017 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change1.7 %2.0 %1.0 %-0.3 % to 2.3 %2.2 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change5.1 %5.5 %8.3 %
Ex-transportation - M/M0.2 %0.7 %0.5 %0.1 % to 1.0 %0.7 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr6.1 %6.8 %7.5 %
Core capital goods - M/M change0.9 %1.3 %0.5 %0.0 % to 0.6 %1.3 %
Core capital goods - Yr/Yr3.6 %4.1 %7.8 %

Highlights
Business investment is picking up sharply based on capital goods orders which highlight a very favorable durable goods report. Durable orders jumped 2.2 percent in September which is right at Econoday's high estimate. A second straight strong month for commercial aircraft, up 64 percent following a 52 percent gain in August, skewed the headline higher but when excluding transportation equipment, orders still managed a strong 0.7 percent gain.

But its core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-aircraft) that show the most important strength, up 1.3 percent with the two prior months also at 1.3 percent. Shipments for this series, which are direct inputs into the business investment component of the GDP report, are building momentum with monthly gains of 0.7 percent in September following 1.2 and 1.0 percent gains in August and July.

One soft spot is vehicle orders which rose only fractionally. Hurricanes effects could not be isolated in September's data and seasonal adjustment procedures were unchanged. Note that upward revisions to August data were first posted in the factory orders report.

Unfilled orders have been flat but rose 0.2 percent which are another positive of September's report. And a rise in inventories will be another plus for GDP, up 0.6 percent and pointing to a monthly build for total factory inventories.

Year-on-year rates are really telling the story, now hitting highs last seen before the oil price collapse of 2014. Total orders are up a yearly 8.3 percent with ex-transportation up 7.5 percent and core capital goods up 7.8 percent.

With only one exception remaining, and that is manufacturing production in the Federal Reserve's industrial production report, factory data are accelerating going into year end. Watch for the Kansas City manufacturing report on tomorrow's calendar.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Durable goods growth has been steady and moderate with one special highlight and that's improvement for capital goods. Vehicles were another a highlight of the August report with replacement demand a possible key plus for September. Econoday's consensus for durable goods orders is a 1.0 percent gain on top of August's 2.0 percent jump. Ex-transportation orders are seen up 0.5 percent with core capital goods orders also up 0.5 percent.

Definition
Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.

Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.

The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.

In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/272/273/244/275/266/267/278/259/2710/2511/2212/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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