2017 Economic Calendar
POWERED BY  econoday logo
U.S. & Intl Recaps   |   Event Definitions   |   Today's Calendar   |   

Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 11/22/2017 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change2.2 %0.4 %-0.5 % to 1.6 %-1.2 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change8.3 %8.4 %1.0 %
Ex-transportation - M/M0.7 %1.1 %0.5 %-0.1 % to 0.7 %0.4 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr7.5 %8.0 %7.4 %
Core capital goods - M/M change1.3 %2.1 %0.5 %0.1 % to 0.7 %-0.5 %
Core capital goods - Yr/Yr7.8 %8.7 %8.1 %

Durable goods orders, down 1.2 percent in October, couldn't post three straight gains but there are positives in the report. But first the negatives which include a 33 percent reversal for commercial aircraft orders and a 0.5 percent decline for core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-aircraft). These two components have been very strong in recent months so a step back isn't a surprise, and aircraft orders appear certain to jump sharply in next month's report given Boeing's major success at this month's Dubai Air Show.

Ex-transportation offers an underlying reading and this is solid with a 0.4 percent gain. The revision to this reading for September is also positive, up 4 tenths to 1.1 percent. And core capital goods get an even bigger revision, an 8 tenths upgrade to 2.1 percent in September which helps offset October's decline. Shipments of core capital goods, which are direct inputs into GDP, are also revised higher, up 5 tenths in September to 1.2 percent with October coming in at a constructive plus 0.4 percent. Other positives in the report are a 1.7 percent rise in vehicle orders and a 1.5 percent increase in vehicle production, both of which follow the post-hurricane spike in vehicle sales.

Other readings are mixed including very modest 0.1 percent gains for both total shipments and total inventories and a disappointing no change for unfilled orders.

This report isn't a step forward but the factory sector, nevertheless, still looks to be a positive contributor to fourth-quarter growth.

Consensus Outlook
Durable goods orders had been mixed this year but broke through to the upside in August and September with respective monthly jumps of 2.2 and 2.0 percent. Aircraft orders have been on the rise as have capital goods orders, the latter pointing to extending gains for business investment. Econoday's consensus for durable goods orders is a 0.4 percent gain with ex-transportation seen up 0.5 percent. Core capital goods orders are also expected to rise 0.5 percent. These are all very healthy rates of growth.

Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.

Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.

The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.

In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
 Why Investors Care
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/272/273/244/275/266/267/278/259/2710/2511/2212/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

powered by  [Econoday]