2017 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation  
Released On 6/2/2017 8:30:00 AM For May, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change211,000 174,000 185,000 140,000  to 231,000 138,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level4.4 %4.4 %4.3 % to 4.5 %4.3 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change194,000 173,000 173,500 140,000  to 200,000 147,000 
Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M change11,000 8,000 5,000  to 10,000 -1,000 
Participation Rate - level62.9 %62.7 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.3 %0.2 %0.2 %0.2 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y change2.5 %2.6 %2.5 % to 2.7 %2.5 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.4 hrs34.4 hrs34.4 hrs to 34.5 hrs34.4 hrs

Highlights
An unexpectedly weak employment report has put a rate hike at this month's FOMC in doubt. Nonfarm payrolls rose only 138,000 in May which is nearly 50,000 below expectations. Importantly, April and March have been downwardly revised by a net 66,000.

Average hourly earnings are also not favorable, up only 02 percent in May with April revised down 1 tenth and now also at 0.2 percent. Wages are going nowhere with the year-on-year rate sitting at 2.5 percent.

A fall in the participation is yet another negative, down 2 tenths to 62.7 percent and pulling the unemployment rate down 1 tenth to only 4.3 percent. Unemployment is very low and contrasts with the lack of wage pressure.

Manufacturing jobs fell 1,000 in May, retail trade down 6,000, and government down 9,000. There were gainers including construction at 11,000, financial also at 11,000, and professional services at a healthy 38,000.

And these gains tell the other side of this report, that payroll growth, though moving lower, is still healthy. That is what the hawks are going to have argue at the June 13 & 14 meeting, that and the theoretical inevitability that wage pressures will soon build.

Consensus Outlook
A gain of 185,000 is Econoday's May consensus for nonfarm payrolls in what would be a second straight solid showing following April's 211,000 rise. In another sign of strength, the unemployment rate is expected to hold at an expansion low of 4.4 percent. Average hourly earnings, which have been weak, are expected to remain weak, up only 0.2 percent vs 0.3 percent in April and making for a year-on-year rate of 2.6 percent vs April's 2.5 percent. Other calls are for a 173,500 rise for private payrolls, no change at 34.4 hours for the workweek, and an 8,000 rise for manufacturing payrolls.

Definition
The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.

Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate t
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/33/104/75/56/27/78/49/110/611/312/8
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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