2017 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation  
Released On 6/2/2017 8:30:00 AM For May, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change211,000 174,000 185,000 140,000  to 231,000 138,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level4.4 %4.4 %4.3 % to 4.5 %4.3 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change194,000 173,000 173,500 140,000  to 200,000 147,000 
Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M change11,000 8,000 5,000  to 10,000 -1,000 
Participation Rate - level62.9 %62.7 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.3 %0.2 %0.2 %0.2 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y change2.5 %2.6 %2.5 % to 2.7 %2.5 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.4 hrs34.4 hrs34.4 hrs to 34.5 hrs34.4 hrs

Highlights
An unexpectedly weak employment report has put a rate hike at this month's FOMC in doubt. Nonfarm payrolls rose only 138,000 in May which is nearly 50,000 below expectations. Importantly, April and March have been downwardly revised by a net 66,000.

Average hourly earnings are also not favorable, up only 02 percent in May with April revised down 1 tenth and now also at 0.2 percent. Wages are going nowhere with the year-on-year rate sitting at 2.5 percent.

A fall in the participation is yet another negative, down 2 tenths to 62.7 percent and pulling the unemployment rate down 1 tenth to only 4.3 percent. Unemployment is very low and contrasts with the lack of wage pressure.

Manufacturing jobs fell 1,000 in May, retail trade down 6,000, and government down 9,000. There were gainers including construction at 11,000, financial also at 11,000, and professional services at a healthy 38,000.

And these gains tell the other side of this report, that payroll growth, though moving lower, is still healthy. That is what the hawks are going to have argue at the June 13 & 14 meeting, that and the theoretical inevitability that wage pressures will soon build.

Recent History Of This Indicator
A gain of 185,000 is Econoday's May consensus for nonfarm payrolls in what would be a second straight solid showing following April's 211,000 rise. In another sign of strength, the unemployment rate is expected to hold at an expansion low of 4.4 percent. Average hourly earnings, which have been weak, are expected to remain weak, up only 0.2 percent vs 0.3 percent in April and making for a year-on-year rate of 2.6 percent vs April's 2.5 percent. Other calls are for a 173,500 rise for private payrolls, no change at 34.4 hours for the workweek, and an 8,000 rise for manufacturing payrolls.

Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. The unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed persons divided by the total number of persons in the labor force, which comes from a survey of 60,000 households (this is called the household survey). Workers are only counted once, no matter how many jobs they have, or whether they are only working part-time. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known figures from the Household Survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate t
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/33/104/75/56/27/78/49/110/611/312/8
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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