2017 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation  
Released On 7/7/2017 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change138,000 152,000 170,000 140,000  to 200,000 222,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level4.3 %4.3 %4.2 % to 4.4 %4.4 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change147,000 159,000 164,000 135,000  to 190,000 187,000 
Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M change-1,000 -2,000 6,000 -5,000  to 10,000 1,000 
Participation Rate - level62.7 %62.8 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.2 %0.1 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y change2.5 %2.4 %2.6 %2.5 % to 2.7 %2.5 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.4 hrs34.4 hrs34.4 hrs to 34.5 hrs34.5 hrs

Highlights
The split between strength in demand for labor and weakness in wages is more acute than ever after the June employment report which shows a significant upgrade to payroll growth but a flat line for average hourly earnings. Nonfarm payrolls surged 222,000 in June with revisions to prior months adding another 47,000. The last 3 months of payroll growth had been very soft but have now been revised away.

Not revised away is earnings which could manage only a 0.2 percent gain in June with May, which was already weak, revised down 1 tenth to only a 0.1 percent monthly gain. Year-on-year, wages are lifeless at 2.5 percent. The weakness points to low wage, low productivity jobs.

But there are more and more jobs led in June by the service sector. Professional & business services lead among the service categories at 35,000 with related temporary help up 13,000. Strength here suggests that employers, unable to fill positions, are turning to contractors. Government jobs were also very strong, up 35,000 and following a run of uneven results. Retail did rise 8,000 in the month but this follows a string of declines.

Gains for goods producers are led by construction at 16,000, then mining at 8,000, and another month of disappointment for manufacturing at 1,000.

Hours are up in what are additional signs of strength, at 34.5 weekly hours overall for a 1 tenth gain with manufacturing also edging higher to 40.8 hours which is a positive indication for next week's industrial production report. Other data include a tick higher in the unemployment rate to a still very low 4.4 percent with the pool of available workers continuing to edge lower, to 12.4 million.

The labor pool may be shrinking but it's not, as it's supposed to according to theory, resulting in stronger wages. Wages are a key driver for inflation and without greater pressure, overall inflation does not look to improve. Still, the strength in both employment and hours make June a strong final chapter for the second quarter.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Nonfarm payroll growth in June is expected to bounce back to 170,000 after slowing to 138,000 in May in what would be a solid showing. There's no improvement needed for the unemployment rate which fell in May to 4.3 percent where it is expected to hold in June. Average hourly earnings have been the weak link in this report and some strength is expected, at a monthly 0.3 percent gain vs 0.2 percent in May for a year-on-year rate of 2.6 percent vs 2.5 percent. Other calls are for a 164,000 rise in private payrolls, a 6,000 rise in manufacturing payrolls, and no change in the workweek at 34.4 hours.

Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. The unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed persons divided by the total number of persons in the labor force, which comes from a survey of 60,000 households (this is called the household survey). Workers are only counted once, no matter how many jobs they have, or whether they are only working part-time. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known figures from the Household Survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate t
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/33/104/75/56/27/78/49/110/611/312/8
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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