2017 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation  
Released On 9/1/2017 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change209,000 189,000 180,000 147,000  to 205,000 156,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level4.3 %4.3 %4.2 % to 4.4 %4.4 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change205,000 202,000 180,000 140,000  to 200,000 165,000 
Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M change16,000 26,000 9,000 -10,000  to 14,000 36,000 
Participation Rate - level62.9 %62.9 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.3 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.1 %
Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y change2.5 %2.6 %2.6 % to 2.7 %2.5 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.5 hrs34.5 hrs34.5 hrs to 34.5 hrs34.4 hrs

Highlights
August payroll growth, though solid, missed expectations while wage data clearly disappointed. Nonfarm payrolls rose 156,000 in the month vs Econoday's consensus for 180,000. Revisions are negative with July revised 20,000 lower to 189,000 and June down 21,000 to 210,000. The unemployment rate reflects the softness, rising 1 tenth to 4.4 percent.

Average hourly earnings barely rose at all, up a monthly 0.1 percent with the year-on-year rate at 2.5 percent. These are both 1 tenth below expectations.

But a major positive in the report, and one correctly signaled by regional factory reports, is a 36,000 surge in manufacturing payrolls that includes a 10,000 upward revision to July to a 26,000 increase and a 9,000 upgrade to June to a gain of 21,000. Construction payrolls are also solid, up 28,000 in August following a 3,000 decline in July. An offset to manufacturing and construction is weakness in retail which, after six straight monthly declines, added only 1,000 jobs despite Amazon's plans to hire 50,000.

And government payroll growth is below expectations, falling 9,000 for the third decline in four months. Excluding government payrolls, private payrolls in August came in at 165,000 which is 9,000 above the headline total but still 15,000 short of expectations.

Weekly hours are also soft, down 0.1 hour to 34.4 with manufacturing, in contrast to the hiring, down 0.2 hours to 40.7 hours which points to a second straight monthly disappointment for the manufacturing component of the industrial production report.

But it's the wage data that, for policy makers, may be the greatest disappointment and will provide the doves, who are concerned about the economy's lack of inflation, serious arguments to delay the beginning of balance-sheet unwinding at this month's FOMC.


Consensus Outlook
Nonfarm payroll growth has been on a 2-month surge, rising 209,000 in July following a 231,000 gain in June. Forecasters are looking for cooling in August where Econoday's consensus is 180,000. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 4.3 percent while average hourly earnings are not seen repeating July's respectable 0.3 percent showing, called instead at a 0.2 percent gain. In an offset, however, year-on-year earnings are seen rising 1 tenth to 2.6 percent. Other calls are for a 180,000 rise in private payrolls, a 9,000 gain for manufacturing payrolls which would be on top of July's 16,000 surge, and no change in the workweek at 34.5 hours.

Definition
The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.

Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate t
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/33/104/75/56/27/78/49/110/611/312/8
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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