2017 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation  
Released On 11/3/2017 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change-33,000 18,000 325,000 200,000  to 371,000 261,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level4.2 %4.2 %4.2 % to 4.4 %4.1 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change-40,000 15,000 320,000 260,000  to 368,000 252,000 
Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M change-1,000 6,000 19,000 10,000  to 34,000 24,000 
Participation Rate - level63.1 %63.0 %63.0 % to 63.1 %62.7 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.5 %0.2 %0.0 % to 0.5 %0.0 %
Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y change2.9 %2.8 %2.7 %2.6 % to 3.1 %2.4 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.4 hrs34.4 hrs34.4 hrs to 34.5 hrs34.4 hrs

Highlights
Wage inflation backed off but payroll growth bounced higher and the unemployment rate shrunk some more in what points to further tightening for the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls rose 261,000 in October which is lower than the expected rebound but is offset by 90,000 in upward revisions to the two prior months. The unemployment rate edged 1 tenth lower to a new 17-year low at 4.1 percent.

After spiking 0.5 percent in both July and September, average hourly earnings came in unchanged in October with the year-on-year rate falling back sharply to a very moderate 2.4 percent. Whether wages can stay moderate given the strong demand for labor is the puzzle of this report.

Hurricane effects are likely the cause of the monthly gyrations in this report and are most evident at restaurants where payrolls jumped 89,000 after plunging 98,000 in September. Manufacturing payrolls are a big plus in the report, up 24,000, with construction also positive at 11,000. Professional business services underscore the demand for labor, rising 50,000 with the temporary help component up a very sizable 18,000.

The average workweek for all private-sector employees was unchanged at 34.4 hours but manufacturing hours and manufacturing overtime both show gains which point to a long overdue rebound for the manufacturing component of the industrial production report.

The pool of available workers shrunk sharply in the month, down 724,000 to 11.705 million which underscores the tight conditions. How long can employers dip into the pool without having to raise wages is the central question right now for policy makers. And the sharp dip in the labor participation rate, down 4 tenths to a much lower than expected 62.7 percent, suggests that discouraged workers, despite the high demand, may be drying up as a source of additional labor. Today's report should confirm expectations for a rate hike at the December FOMC.

Consensus Outlook
Hurricane effects pulled nonfarm payrolls down 33,000 in September and a bounce-back gain of 325,000 is expected for October. The consensus range, however, is very wide, between 200,000 and 371,000. September's unemployment rate fell to a 16-year low of 4.2 percent and is expected to hold there in October. No less dramatic was a sharp jump for average hourly earnings where September's 0.5 percent surge is expected to slow to 0.2 percent for a 2.7 percent yearly rate vs 2.9 percent in September. Other calls are for a 320,000 rise in private payrolls, a 19,000 gain for manufacturing payrolls, and no change for the workweek at 34.4 hours.

Definition
The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.

Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/33/104/75/56/27/78/49/110/611/312/8
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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