2017 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims  
Released On 6/1/2017 8:30:00 AM For wk5/27, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level234 K235 K239 K235 K to 245 K248 K
4-week Moving Average - Level235.25 K235.50 K238.00 K
New Claims - Change1 K2 K13 K

A holiday shortened reporting week led to 9 states, including California, having to be estimated for the May 27 week, a fact that raises the risk of a large revision and lowers the impact of an outsized 13,000 rise in initial claims to a higher-than-expected 248,000. Continuing claims, in lagging data for the May 20 week, fell 9,000 to 1.915 million with the unemployment rate for insured workers remaining at 1.4 percent. All the readings in this report over the last year, in confirmation that demand for labor is very strong, have moved to lows not seen since the early 1970s.

Consensus Outlook
Jobless claims are at 40-year lows and pointing to unusually strong demand for labor. Forecasters sees initial claims coming in at 239,000 in the May 27 week vs 236,000 in the prior week.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

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