2017 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims  
Released On 7/13/2017 8:30:00 AM For wk7/8, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level248 K250 K246 K242 K to 255 K247 K
4-week Moving Average - Level243.00 K243.50 K245.75 K
New Claims - Change4 K6 K-3 K

Initial jobless claims held little changed at 247,000 in the July 8 week with the prior week, when 7 states had to be estimated, revised only slightly, 2,000 higher to 250,000. No states were estimated in the latest week. The 4-week average is up 2,250 to 245,750 which is slightly above the month-ago trend in what is not a favorable early indication for the July employment report.

Continuing claims, where data lag by a week, fell 20,000 to 1.945 million with this 4-week average, at 1.949 million, also up slightly. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at a very low 1.4 percent.

There are no special factors in today's report which, despite the movement higher for the 4-week averages, is still clearly consistent with very strong demand for labor.

Consensus Outlook
Demand for labor is very strong reflected in jobless claims which are at historic lows. Forecasters sees initial claims coming in at 246,000 in the July 8 week vs 248,000 in the prior week.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

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