2017 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims  
Released On 7/27/2017 8:30:00 AM For wk7/22, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level233 K234 K240 K235 K to 243 K244 K
4-week Moving Average - Level243.75 K244.00 K244.00 K
New Claims - Change-15 K-14 K10 K

The outsized 14,000 decline in the prior week is reversed by an outsized 10,000 rise in the July 22 week for initial jobless claims which, at 244,000, came in 4,000 higher than the Econoday consensus. The offsetting changes are reflected in the 4-week average which is at 244,000 for both weeks.

Continuing claims, where data lag by a week, fell 13,000 in the July 15 week with this 4-week average up a slight 5,000 to 1.964 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at a very low 1.4 percent.

No states were estimated and, despite auto-plant layoffs at this time of year, the Labor Department is citing no special factors in today's report, one that points to steady and strong demand for labor.

Consensus Outlook
Demand for labor is very strong reflected in jobless claims which are at historic lows. Forecasters sees initial claims coming in at 240,000 in the July 22 week vs an unusually low 233,000 in the prior week.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

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