2017 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims  
Released On 11/22/2017 8:30:00 AM For wk11/18, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level249 K252 K240 K238 K to 249 K239 K
4-week Moving Average - Level237.75 K238.50 K239.75 K
New Claims - Change10 K13 K-13 K

Demand for labor remains unusually strong with initial jobless claims remaining near historic lows, down 13,000 in the November 18 week to 239,000. Puerto Rico, still recovering from Hurricane Maria in September, continues to inflate the total but only modestly, remaining about three times as high as normal but contained, at 6,944 vs 6,690 in the prior week.

Continuing claims are also holding at historic lows, at 1.904 million in lagging data for the November 11 week. The unemployment rate for insured workers did tick 1 tenth higher but also remains near historic lows, at only 1.4 percent.

This report will firm expectations for another solidly positive monthly employment report and should confirm expectations for a rate hike at next month's FOMC.

Consensus Outlook
Initial claims are expected to come in at 240,000 in the November 18 week vs 249,000 in the November 11 week. Claims have been elevated in hurricane-hit Puerto Rico but did ease in the prior week.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

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