2017 Economic Calendar
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GDP  
Released On 5/26/2017 8:30:00 AM For Q1(p):2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR0.7 %0.8 %0.7 % to 1.0 %1.2 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR2.3 %2.3 %2.3 % to 2.4 %2.2 %
Real Consumer Spending – Q/Q change – SAAR0.3 %0.4 %0.3 % to 0.5 %0.6 %

Highlights
First-quarter GDP gets a small but much needed upgrade, now at a 1.2 percent rate of annualized growth which is nearly double the advance estimate. The gain is centered where it is best, in consumer spending where the rate did double to 0.6 percent. This is still slow but is an improvement with durable goods, at minus 1.4 percent, showing less contraction and services showing greater growth, at 0.8 percent.

Boosted by strong and sudden acceleration in both structures and equipment, nonresidential fixed investment is also upgraded, to 11.4 percent for a 2 percentage point gain. Government purchases are also upgraded, down 1.1 percent for a 6 tenths improvement that pulls less on GDP. Other readings are stable with a slowing build in inventories still a major negative (a negative for GDP but not for the second-quarter outlook).

But the second-quarter outlook, which was once very positive, is mostly in question following a run of weak data for April including this morning's durable goods report. And the first-quarter is a little less of an easy comparison now for the second quarter where early estimates, once as high as 3 and 4 percent, have been coming down to the 2 percent area.

Recent History Of This Indicator
First-quarter GDP is expected to be revised to 0.8 percent from an initial estimate of 0.7 percent. Consumer spending was very weak in the first estimate, at a 0.3 percent annualized rate of growth with the revision seen at plus 0.4 percent. Forecasters see the GDP price index holding unchanged from its initial 2.3 percent.

Definition
Gross Domestic Product represents the total value of the country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically-produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and government entities. Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, as well as in index form. Economists and market players always monitor the real growth rates generated by the GDP quantity index or the real dollar value. The quantity index measures inflation-adjusted activity, but we are more accustomed to looking at dollar values.

Household purchases are counted in personal consumption expenditures -- durable goods (such as furniture and cars), nondurable goods (such as clothing and food) and services (such as banking, education and transportation). Private housing purchases are classified as residential investment. Businesses invest in nonresidential structures, durable equipment and computer software. Inventories at all stages of production are counted as investment. Only inventory changes, not levels, are added to GDP.

Net exports equal the sum of exports less imports. Exports are the purchases by foreigners of goods and services produced in the United States. Imports represent domestic purchases of foreign-produced goods and services and must be deducted from the calculation of GDP. Government purchases of goods and services are the compensation of government employees and purchases from businesses and abroad. Data show the portion attributed to consumption and investment. Government outlays for transfer payments or interest payments are not included in GDP.

The GDP price index is a comprehensive indicator of inflation. It is typically lower than the consumer price index because investment goods (which are in the GDP price index but not the CPI) tend to have lower rates of inflation than consumer goods and services. Note that contributions of each component, as averaged over the prior year, are tracked in the table below (components do not exactly sum to total due to chain-weighted methodology). Consumption expenditures, otherwise known as consumer spending, has over history been steadily making up an increasing share of GDP.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Real GDP growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate. It measures how much the economy has grown over a three-month period. Quarterly growth rates are often volatile consequently, economists also like to look at the year-over-year growth in GDP. The yearly changes tend to be more stable.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
It is common to compare quarterly changes at annual rates in the GDP deflator. These can be volatile, just like the quarterly swings in real GDP growth as a result, the trend in inflation is better determined by year- over- year changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/272/283/304/285/266/297/288/309/2810/2711/2912/21
Release For: Q4(a):2016Q4(p):2016Q4(f):2016Q1(a):2017Q1(p):2017Q1(f):2017Q2(a):2017Q2(p):2017Q2(f):2017Q3(a):2017Q3(p):2017Q3(f):2017
 
A: Advance P: Preliminary F: Final


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