2017 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 1/30/2017 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2016
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Personal Income - M/M change0.0 %0.1 %0.4 %0.3 % to 0.6 %0.3 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change0.2 %0.5 %0.3 % to 0.6 %0.5 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change0.0 %0.1 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change0.0 %0.2 %0.0 % to 0.3 %0.1 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change1.4 %1.6 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change1.6 %1.7 %1.7 %

Personal income rose a moderate 0.3 percent in December with the wages & salaries component posting a slightly better gain at 0.4 percent. The savings rate, however, fell in the month, down 2 tenths to 5.4 percent which helped to fund a strong 0.5 percent gain in consumer spending. December's spending was centered in a 1.4 percent rise for durable goods, boosted specifically by autos, but included a 0.4 percent gain for services and a 0.2 percent for nondurable goods.

Inflation data look tame but nevertheless continue to trend higher. The core PCE (less food & energy) inched only 0.1 percent higher with the year-on-year at 1.7 percent which is unchanged from an upwardly revised November. Total PCE prices, boosted by a 1.7 percent monthly rise in energy, rose 0.2 percent. But this year-on-year rate, which is the most important barometer for price change in the economy, is up 2 tenths to 1.6 percent which is the highest since the oil collapse in 2014 (July 2014).

In sum, income is still moderate and spending is solid though may be getting funded from savings. And for inflation hawks, PCE prices are closing in steadily toward the Fed's 2 percent target.

Consensus Outlook
Strength in vehicle sales points to a jump in durable goods spending and in turn a strong gain for December consumer spending which forecasters see rising 0.5 percent. Personal income is expected to bounce back from a weak November with the consensus at plus 0.4 percent. PCE price indexes have been flat but year-on-year rates, boosted from easier comparisons, have been moving toward the Fed's 2 percent target. On a monthly basis, the PCE price index is seen rising 0.2 percent in December with the PCE core index also seen up 0.2 percent. Note the report will offer a December breakdown of consumer data previously released in the fourth-quarter GDP report.

Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

 Why Investors Care
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/303/13/315/15/306/308/18/319/2910/3011/3012/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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