2017 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 3/1/2017 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Personal Income - M/M change0.3 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.5 %0.4 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change0.5 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.5 %0.2 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change0.2 %0.4 %0.3 % to 0.5 %0.4 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change0.1 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.3 %0.3 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change1.6 %1.9 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change1.7 %1.7 %

Highlights
Inflation is nearly at the Fed's 2.0 percent target, up a sharp 3 tenths to 1.9 percent for the PCE price index which is the strongest rate since April 2012. The monthly gain, reflecting rising energy costs, rose an outsized and higher-than-expected 0.4 percent for the highest reading since February 2013. But the core, which excludes food and also energy, held steady at 1.7 percent though the monthly rate for this reading did rise 0.3 percent which is the largest increase since January last year.

Turning to spending and income, personal consumption expenditures could muster only a 0.2 percent gain, 1 tenth below the Econoday consensus in a marginal gain that belies the enormous strength underway in consumer confidence. And when adjusted for inflation, spending fell 0.3 percent for the largest drop since September 2009.

But income is solid, at a monthly 0.4 percent with the wages & salaries component also rising 0.4 percent. The savings rate steadied in the month, up 1 tenth to 5.5 percent.

The PCE price index will put the pressure on the Fed to raise rates at the mid-month policy meeting. Though it's not quite at target, its clear upward trajectory makes a successful breach all but certain. Turning back to spending, January's weak opening points to downward revisions for first-quarter GDP estimates.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Personal income has been growing in the modest 3 to 3-1/2 percent range the past year though the wages & salaries component has been in the 4 percent range. Similarly, consumer spending has been on a moderate rise to 4 percent. For January, forecasters see income rising a monthly 0.3 percent with spending also up 0.3 percent. Key in this report will be the PCE price index which has been on the rise and is expected to post a sizable monthly gain of 0.4 percent that would put it very near the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. The core PCE (less food & energy) is expected to rise 0.3 percent.

Definition
Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/303/13/315/15/306/308/18/319/2910/3011/3012/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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