2017 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 5/1/2017 8:30:00 AM For Mar, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Personal Income - M/M change0.4 %0.3 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.5 %0.2 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change0.1 %0.0 %0.1 %-0.2 % to 0.3 %0.0 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change0.1 %-0.1 %-0.3 % to 0.2 %-0.2 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change0.2 %0.0 %-0.2 % to 0.3 %-0.1 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change2.1 %1.8 %1.8 % to 2.2 %1.8 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change1.8 %1.7 %1.6 % to 2.0 %1.6 %

Based on the consumer and based on inflation, FOMC members won't be feeling much pressure to raise rates at least not any time soon. Consumer spending was unchanged in March, even weaker than Econoday's 0.1 percent consensus. More startling is the weakest showing in 16-1/2 years for core PCE prices which fell 0.1 percent to take down the year-on-year rate by a sizable 2 tenths to 1.6 percent.

Income is also disappointing, up only 0.2 percent with the wages & salaries component posting a very weak 0.1 percent rise. Consumers nevertheless managed to move money into the bank as the savings rate rose 2 tenths to 5.9 percent (which is another factor behind the weak spending).

The core PCE index is the key inflation gauge for the FOMC and prior to this report members were expressing confidence that it was stable and generally headed toward their 2 percent target. And overall prices which moved above target in February are now back below target, falling a monthly 0.2 percent with the year-on-year rate down a steep 3 tenths to 1.8 percent. First-quarter economic data proved surprisingly weak even by first-quarter standards. The economy has catching up to do.

Consensus Outlook
Personal income has been rising at a moderate to solid rate though consumer spending has been very weak. Forecasters see income rising 0.3 percent in March following February's 0.4 percent gain with spending at only plus 0.1 percent. Consumer prices were soft in March and the consensus for the PCE price index is at minus 0.1 percent for a yearly plus 1.8 percent. Core PCE (less food & energy) is seen unchanged with this yearly rate steady at 1.7 percent. Note that the report will offer a March breakdown of consumer data already bundled in the first-quarter GDP report.

Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

 Why Investors Care
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/303/13/315/15/306/308/18/319/2910/3011/3012/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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