2017 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 5/30/2017 8:30:00 AM For Apr, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Personal Income - M/M change0.2 %0.4 %0.3 % to 0.5 %0.4 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change0.0 %0.3 %0.4 %0.3 % to 0.5 %0.4 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change-0.2 %0.2 %-0.1 % to 0.2 %0.2 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change-0.1 %0.1 %0.1 % to 0.1 %0.2 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change1.8 %1.9 %1.7 %1.5 % to 1.7 %1.7 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change1.6 %1.5 %1.4 % to 1.6 %1.5 %

April was mostly a favorable month for the consumer who benefited from strong wage gains, kept money in the bank, and was an active shopper at least compared to the first quarter. Consumer spending opened the second quarter with an as-expected 0.4 percent gain with strength in durables spending, including vehicles, offsetting another subpar increase, however, for services at only 0.3 percent. Personal income rose 0.4 percent in April with the wages & salaries component posting an outsized 0.7 percent gain and offsetting weakness in proprietor income and interest income. The savings rate held at 5.3 percent for a third straight month.

Inflation data in this report, which are the FOMC's key inflation gauges, are more subdued than the spending readings. The core PCE (less food & energy) managed a 0.2 percent monthly gain but the year-on-year rate slipped another 1 tenth to 1.5 percent. This is the lowest rate since December 2015 with this year's weak pressures having erased a full year of improvement. Overall prices also rose 0.2 percent with this year-on-year rate also lower, down 2 tenths to 1.7 percent.

A small positive in the report is an upward revision to March spending from no change to plus 0.3 percent. That's a positive, however, that falls into the first quarter, not the second which is the focus right now. Consumer spending put in a respectable April but nothing spectacular which some had been expecting given positive seasonal factors including the inclusion of Easter. But the inflation readings are very quiet and won't be raising expectations much further for a rate hike at the June FOMC.

Consensus Outlook
Consumer spending is expected to improve in April, at a consensus gain of 0.4 percent against however a very weak comparison of no change in March. Personal income was also soft in March, up only 0.2 percent, and a better performance is expected with the consensus also at 0.4 percent. Price data, however, are not expected to rebound much with the consensus for the very closely watched core PCE index (less food & energy) looking for only a 0.1 percent gain and a year-on-year rate of 1.5 percent which would be 1 tenth lower than March.

Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

 Why Investors Care
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/303/13/315/15/306/308/18/319/2910/3011/3012/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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