2017 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 6/30/2017 8:30:00 AM For May, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Personal Income - M/M change0.4 %0.3 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.4 %0.4 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change0.4 %0.1 %0.0 % to 0.3 %0.1 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change0.2 %-0.1 %-0.1 % to 0.0 %-0.1 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change0.2 %0.1 %0.1 %0.0 % to 0.2 %0.1 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change1.7 %1.5 %1.4 % to 1.6 %1.4 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change1.5 %1.5 %1.4 % to 1.6 %1.4 %

Highlights
May was not a strong month for the consumer. Income did rise 0.4 percent but it wasn't because of wages & salaries which could manage only a 0.1 percent gain. It was personal income transfers and proprietor income that gave a boost to income which the consumer, however, moved into savings, which rose 4 tenths to a 5.5 percent rate, and not spending which could do no better than expectations, at a 0.1 percent increase.

Spending was weakest in nondurable goods, down 0.5 percent in the month but, in an important note, reflected low energy prices not low demand. But spending on durables was also negative, down 0.3 percent. The positive is a moderate 0.3 percent gain for the biggest category and that's services.

Price data are very soft, up only 0.1 percent for the core rate (less food & energy) for a year-on-year rate of only 1.4 percent, down 1 tenth in the month. This is the third decline in a row for the yearly rate and the weakest showing in a year-and-a-half. The overall PCE fell 0.1 percent with this year-on-year rate also at 1.4 percent for a 3 tenths decline.

The second leg of the second quarter did not turn out well for the consumer nor for GDP. But the weakness in price data is a more strategic concern for monetary policy makers who may be removing stimulus into inflationary headwinds.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Consumer spending is expected to slow in May, to a consensus gain of only 0.1 percent vs a moderate 0.4 percent rise in April. Personal income also came in at 0.4 percent in April and no better performance is expected with the May consensus at 0.3 percent. Price data are also not expected to improve with the PCE price index seen falling 0.1 percent in May vs April's 0.2 percent increase with the year-on-year rate at 1.5 percent vs 1.7 percent. Expectations for the core PCE (less food & energy) is a monthly 0.1 percent increase vs 0.2 percent in April with this year-on-year rate -- which is the most closely watched of any inflation indicator -- at a consensus 1.5 percent which would be unchanged from April.

Definition
Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/303/13/315/15/306/308/18/319/2910/3011/3012/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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