2017 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 8/1/2017 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Personal Income - M/M change0.4 %0.3 %0.4 %0.2 % to 0.5 %0.0 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change0.1 %0.2 %0.1 %0.0 % to 0.3 %0.1 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change-0.1 %0.0 %0.0 %0.0 % to 0.2 %0.0 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change0.1 %0.1 %0.1 % to 0.2 %0.1 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change1.4 %1.5 %1.3 %1.3 % to 1.4 %1.4 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change1.4 %1.5 %1.4 %1.4 % to 1.5 %1.5 %

Highlights
It's hard to detect much life in any part of the personal income & outlays report. Income couldn't muster a gain in June, coming in unchanged with May revised 1 tenth lower to a 0.3 percent gain. Consumer spending did make the plus column but with only a 0.1 percent gain though May gets a 1 tenth upgrade to 0.2 percent. Price data are flat, unchanged in the month with the core rate (less food and energy) up 0.1 percent for a second weak month in a row. Year-on-year, overall prices are up only 1.4 percent with the core little better at 1.5 percent.

The weakness in income, at least for June, isn't due to weakness in wages & salaries which rose 0.4 percent following, however, only a 0.1 percent gain in May. Proprietor income fell in the month with interest income flat and rental income and transfer receipts up. The breakdown for spending shows a second straight 0.3 percent gain for the largest component which is services but 0.4 percent declines for both durable and non-durable goods.

What little spending did appear in June may have come from savings, at least slightly, as the savings rate fell 1 tenth to a thin 3.8 percent rate. There are plenty of jobs in the economy but wage growth is sub par and with it both consumer spending and inflation are flat. These results do not point to much consumer momentum going into the third quarter.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Personal income in June is expected to rise a respectable 0.4 percent for a second month in a row. Consumer spending, however, is seen up only 0.1 percent in what would also be a back-to-back repeat. Price data are not expected to improve with the PCE price index seen unchanged and the year-on-year rate down slightly to 1.3 percent. The consensus for the core PCE (less food & energy) is a monthly 0.1 percent increase for a yearly 1.4 percent. Note that the report will offer a July breakdown of consumer data already bundled in the second-quarter GDP report.

Definition
Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/303/13/315/15/306/308/18/319/2910/3011/3012/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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