2017 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 9/29/2017 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus Range
Personal Income - M/M change0.4 %0.3 %0.1 % to 0.4 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change0.3 %0.1 %-0.2 % to 0.3 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change0.1 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.4 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change0.1 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change1.4 %1.5 %1.4 % to 1.6 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change1.4 %1.4 %1.4 % to 1.7 %

Recent History Of This Indicator
Both income and spending rebounded in July but not the Federal Reserve's PCE price indexes which remained lifeless. Personal income is seen is rising 0.3 percent in August vs July's 0.4 percent gain though consumer spending, reflecting August weakness in retail sales, is expected to slow to a 0.1 percent increase vs 0.3 percent in July. PCE prices, both overall and for the core, managed only 0.1 percent gains in July with the year-on-year rates both at a very soft 1.4 percent. Overall prices, boosted by higher energy prices that in part reflect gains for energy, are expected to rise 0.3 percent with the yearly rate seen at 1.5 percent. Core prices, which exclude both energy and food, are seen rising 0.2 percent in the month for a yearly rate of 1.4 percent in specific results that would not further heighten expectations for a December rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

Definition
Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/303/13/315/15/306/308/18/319/2910/3011/3012/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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