2017 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 11/30/2017 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Personal Income - M/M change0.4 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.4 %0.4 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change1.0 %0.9 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.5 %0.3 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change0.4 %0.1 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.1 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change0.1 %0.2 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change1.6 %1.7 %1.5 %1.5 % to 1.7 %1.6 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change1.3 %1.4 %1.4 %1.4 % to 1.5 %1.4 %

Highlights
Inflation is showing the slightest bit of life yet probably more than enough to assure a rate hike at this month's FOMC. The core PCE price index, which is the inflation gauge FOMC members most closely watch, rose an as-expected 0.2 percent in October with September revised 1 tenth higher and now also at 0.2 percent. October's year-on-year rate also made expectations at 1.4 percent with the prior month again revised 1 tenth higher and also at 1.4 percent. These rates are far from overheating but the forward direction, however glacial, is favorable for policy makers who are trying to push inflation gradually higher.

Other readings in the report are mixed with personal income getting a special boost from interest income and rising 0.4 percent which is 1 tenth above expectations and actually at the high estimate. Yet the wages & salaries component for income, which is key, is up only 0.3 percent which is soft and down 2 tenths from September. Spending is also soft, up 0.3 percent as expected and reflecting a slight downtick in durable goods as vehicle sales in October, though strong, couldn't match September's hurricane-replacement spike.

The savings rate remains low though it did rise 2 tenths to 3.2 percent. In comparison to employment or the sparks appearing in the factory and housing sectors, this report offers a more subdued view of the economy, much like yesterday's Beige Book where modest-to-moderate was the theme. For Fed policy, spending and income don't point to any urgency for a rate hike but the high level of employment does as it threatens, at least in theory, to ignite a burst of wage-push inflation.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Income and especially spending both rose in September but failed to give much lift to the Federal Reserve's core PCE price index and much of the same is expected for October. Personal income is seen rising 0.3 percent in October vs a 0.4 percent gain in September while consumer spending is expected to slow to 0.3 percent vs September's post-hurricane auto surge of 1.0 percent. The PCE price index is expected to rise only 0.1 percent for a year-on-year rate of 1.5 percent with the core PCE price index, which excludes both food and energy, seen up 0.2 percent for a yearly rate of only 1.4 percent.

Definition
Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/303/13/315/15/306/308/18/319/2910/3011/3012/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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