2017 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 12/22/2017 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Personal Income - M/M change0.4 %0.4 %0.3 % to 0.5 %0.3 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change0.3 %0.2 %0.5 %0.3 % to 0.6 %0.6 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change0.1 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change0.2 %0.1 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.1 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change1.6 %1.8 %1.7 % to 1.8 %1.8 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change1.4 %1.5 %1.5 % to 1.6 %1.5 %

Highlights
Consumer spending, up 0.6 percent in November, is strong but there are still soft spots in the personal income and outlays report. Income rose only 0.3 percent as transfer receipts from the government fell sharply to offset a respectable 0.4 percent gain in wages and salaries. And behind the rise in consumer spending is a 1.2 percent spike in nondurable spending that reflects higher gasoline prices in the month. Durable spending, held down by a slowing in vehicle sales, was unchanged in November though service spending accelerated 4 tenths to a strong 0.6 percent monthly gain. Behind all the spending was a sharp 3 tenths drawdown in the savings rate to only 2.9 percent which is the weakest showing in 10 years, since November 2007.

The central trouble is once again in the report's inflation data as the core PCE price index, the most closely followed of any inflation indicator and which excludes energy and food, inched only 0.1 percent higher with the year-on-year rate also 1 tenth higher at 1.5 percent and still far below the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. The overall PCE price index rose 0.2 percent with this year-on-year rate up 2 tenths to 1.8 percent.

The inflation data are moving in the right direction but just barely. And while the spending and wage data are favorable, the low level of the savings rate may become a concern especially if the labor market begins to lose strength. For retailers and holiday spending, today's report is solid but still less than robust. Watch later this morning at 10:00 a.m. ET for the latest update on consumer sentiment.

Consensus Outlook
Income and spending growth were respectable in October and the core PCE price index did show limited but still welcome improvement. For November, personal income is seen rising 0.4 percent while consumer spending, getting a boost from the month's surge in retail sales, is expected to come in at 0.5 percent. The PCE price index is expected to rise 0.3 percent for a year-on-year rate of 1.8 percent with the core PCE price index, which rose 0.2 percent in October and which excludes both food and energy, seen up only 0.1 percent for a yearly 1.5 percent.

Definition
Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/303/13/315/15/306/308/18/319/2910/3011/3012/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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