2017 Economic Calendar
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Retail Sales  
Released On 8/15/2017 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Retail Sales - M/M change-0.2 %0.3 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.5 %0.6 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change-0.2 %0.1 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.5 %0.5 %
Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change-0.1 %0.3 %0.4 %0.3 % to 0.4 %0.5 %
Control Group – M/M change-0.1 %0.1 %0.4 %0.3 % to 0.6 %0.6 %

Highlights
The consumer was back in the stores last month in a July retail sales report, headlined by a 0.6 percent monthly gain, that not only exceeds top expectations but also includes sizable upward revisions. Nonstore retailers, vehicle dealers, building materials stores lead the report -- all major categories. Secondary readings are all strong: up 0.5 percent ex-autos, up 0.5 percent ex-autos ex-gas, and up 0.6 percent for the control group.

Revisions are prominent in this report with June revised 5 tenths overall to plus 0.3 percent from an initial minus 0.2 percent. And May gets an upward revision too, now unchanged vs minus 0.1 percent.

One the weakest of all the consumer readings, retail sales are now back into the fold with other indications on consumer spending, which are positive and in line with full employment. Note that the upward revisions to June and May will be positives for second-quarter GDP revisions.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Retail sales have been among the most disappointing of any economic indicator this year but expectations are looking for a constructive rebound in July. The Econoday consensus is calling for a 0.3 percent gain vs a 0.2 percent decline in June. With unit vehicle sales flat in July, cars and trucks are not expected to impact monthly change as the ex-autos reading is also expected to come in at plus 0.3 percent. Two other readings -- less autos & gas and control group sales -- both declined 0.1 percent in June and forecasters are looking for strong rebounds of 0.4 percent each.

Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/132/153/154/145/126/147/148/159/1510/1311/1512/14
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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