2017 Economic Calendar
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Empire State Mfg Survey  
Released On 3/15/2017 8:30:00 AM For Mar, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level18.7 15.4 14.0  to 18.5 16.4 

Manufacturers in New York state, like their colleagues in the Mid-Atlantic, are having their hands full with exceptionally strong activity. The Empire State index did edge back 2.3 points this month to 16.4 from February's 18.7 but this reading is a single-question sentiment index. More substantial readings are through the roof.

New orders are up nearly 8 points this month to a 21.3 level that was last exceeded in April 2010. Unfilled orders jumped 6 points to 14.2 which is the highest reading since way back in March 2006. Delivery times, at 10.6 for a 3.5 point gain, show the most month-to-month slowing since May 2004.

Slowing delivery times are the signal that activity may be getting too hot. The sample's average workweek, at 15.0, is the strongest since March 2012. Employment is understandably on the rise, at 8.8 for a nearly 7 point gain.

This report had been lagging the Philly Fed in strength but not any more. The strength of these reports are inflationary, pointing to the risk of supply dislocations. Yet anecdotal reports have not panned out much at all to actual strength in the real economy, a disconnect that appears very likely, given the enormous strength of these regional reports, to resolve itself with outsized strength for the industrial production and factory order reports.

Consensus Outlook
Empire State has been signaling increasing acceleration in the manufacturing sector. Key readings are at 2-1/2 year highs including the headline index, at 18.7 in February with forecasters however expecting slowing in March to what would still be a very solid 15.7. This report will offer the first advance look at this month's factory conditions.

The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 200 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/172/153/154/175/156/157/178/159/1510/1611/1512/15
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

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