2017 Economic Calendar
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Empire State Mfg Survey  
Released On 5/15/2017 8:30:00 AM For May, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level5.2 8.0 5.0  to 10.0 -1.0 

Highlights
Activity in the New York manufacturing region is flattening out this month following a run of unusually strong growth. May's Empire State index came in at a lower-than-expected minus 1.0 with new orders also moving into the negative column to minus 4.4. Unfilled orders, which were very strong in April and March, also moved below zero to minus 3.7.

But the strength in prior orders is keeping production up, at a very solid plus 10.6 this month, and is also keeping hiring up, at 11.9 and only 2 points slower than April's 2-year high. Delivery times continue to slow though to much a lesser degree than prior months which points to easing congestion in the supply chain. Inventories are flat and price pressures still increasing though, once again, less than before.

The slowing in this report is actually welcome news, giving time for supply constraints to ease and reducing risks of over heating. This report points to easing for Thursday's Philly Fed where another month of enormous strength is currently the expectation. Yet despite the strength of anecdotal reports like Empire State and Philly, definitive factory data out of Washington have yet to show outsized acceleration. Watch for the manufacturing component of tomorrow's industrial production, definitive data where only a moderate rise is expected.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Strength in the Empire State report has been so acute that cooling in April was a welcome outcome. Delivery times have been tracking at record highs to indicate tight congestion in the New York economy's supply chain. New orders continued to rise in April, though at a slower rate, and backlogs continued to rise, holding near record rates of growth. After a 5.2 headline for April that followed 16.4 and 18.7 in the two prior months, forecasters are calling for 8.0 in May.

Definition
The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/172/153/154/175/156/157/178/159/1510/1611/1512/15
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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