2017 Economic Calendar
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Empire State Mfg Survey  
Released On 9/15/2017 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level25.2 19.0 10.5  to 20.5 24.4 

Highlights
Overheating is the signal from Empire State's manufacturing report where strength, which has been enormous, continues to build. September's 24.4 headline easily exceeds Econoday's top estimate but it's the details that are ominously strong.

New orders are up more than 4 points this month to 24.9 to signal the fastest rate of monthly growth in 8 years. Backlog orders are piling up at an unusually strong 8.9 while delivery delays, likely tied at least in part to the supply-chain impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, are at 14.6 which is a record in the 16 year history of this report. Shipments are rising, hiring is accelerating, the sample is increasing inventories, and prices are firmly underscoring the strength, showing very elevated pressure for inputs and strong traction for selling prices.

This report needs to cool to avoid dislocations and extended delivery delays in the region's factory sector. Watch next week for the Philly Fed report which has also been running at unsustainably strong levels. Also watch later this morning for industrial production which is definitive data that have been telling a significantly different story than regional factory surveys.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The Empire State report will be the first factory indication on what is proving to be a weather-stricken month of September. The index is coming off a 3-year high of 25.2 in August and though the report tracks New York manufacturing, which has been free of hurricanes, forecasters are calling for moderation to 19.0.

Definition
The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/172/153/154/175/156/157/178/159/1510/1611/1512/15
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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