2017 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 2/1/2017 10:00:00 AM For Jan, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level54.7 54.5 55.0 54.0  to 56.8 56.0 

Highlights
The ISM manufacturing report, in line with a run of regional reports, is signaling the strongest conditions in the factory sector since the oil-price collapse of 2014. The composite index for January is 56.0 for a sizable 1.5 point gain and the highest reading since November 2014.

New orders at 60.4 vs 60.3 in December is also a high since November 2014 and is the first back-to-back 60 showing since December 2013. Employment is also strong, up a sharp 3.3 points to 56.1 for the highest reading since August 2014. Inventories are steady as are delivery times which have been slowing in line with rising activity. Input costs are showing increasing pressure, in line with rising costs in other anecdotal reports.

The 2014 collapse in the oil sector drove down energy equipment and had a lasting but now fading effect on the factory sector. Yet anecdotal reports offer only advance indications on factory activity, not definitive ones where the readings so far have yet to show much post-election pop. Factory orders on Friday will offer the government's results for January and are expected to show a gain.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The ISM manufacturing index has beaten the consensus the last four reports and by a sizable 9 tenths in the last two reports. New orders jumped to a 2-year high in December with export orders at a 2-1/2 year high. Indications of strength have also been coming from input costs which posted a 5-1/2 year high. Forecasters are calling for steady strength in the January report, at a consensus 55.0 vs December's 54.7.

Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM manufacturing index [formerly known as the NAPM Survey] is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/35/16/17/38/19/110/211/112/1
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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