2017 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 5/1/2017 10:00:00 AM For Apr, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level57.2 56.5 55.5  to 57.2 54.8 

After 7 straight months of beating expectations, the ISM manufacturing index finally fell short and sharply so, at 54.8 in April which is 7 tenths below Econoday's low estimate. Yet standing on its own, April's report is very solid. Rates of plus-50 growth are very strong for production, up 1 point at 58.6, and new orders at 57.5 which, however, is the first sub-60 reading in 5 months.

But the unusual 60 run for new orders has been building up backlogs which continue to rise, at 57.0 which is very strong for this reading. Delays in delivery times eased slightly but still point to demand-related congestion in the supply chain. Inventories rose slightly which is a contrast to the PMI manufacturing report released earlier this morning and which is reporting intentional and defensive destocking.

Costs in both reports are very high while employment in the ISM, unlike the PMI and despite ISM's strength in backlogs, is slowing. A special positive for the ISM is building and extended strength for export orders, gains however that have not translated to strength for actual exports in data out of Washington.

The ISM along with the Philly Fed have been the most prominent of the advance reports signaling unusual strength for the factory sector, where aircraft in the government's data has had a strong year but other manufacturing much less so. Watch for the next government report on manufacturing: factory orders on Thursday.

Consensus Outlook
The ISM manufacturing index has been signaling unusually strong conditions and has beaten the Econoday consensus for the last 7 reports in a row. New orders, in the mid-60s, are at 3-year highs with export orders at a 4-year high. Backlog orders are piling up to a 6-year high with employment also at a 6-year high. Delivery times have been slowing in further confirmation of general strength. And some of this strength, as well as similar strength in other advance reports, may now be appearing in government data out of Washington including first-quarter business investment which jumped sharply. Forecasters are calling for only slight slowing in the April ISM to an otherwise strong 56.5 vs March's 57.2.

The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
The ISM manufacturing index [formerly known as the NAPM Survey] is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/35/16/17/38/19/110/211/112/1
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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