2017 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 6/1/2017 10:00:00 AM For May, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level54.8 54.6 53.7  to 55.8 54.9 

Highlights
May's composite of 54.9 doesn't look that strong but the details are very healthy. New orders keep coming in at a very strong rate (59.5), including for exports (57.5), and backlogs are building (55.0). Production is strong, import orders continue to rise, and deliveries are slowing which are all signs of strength. Employment, at 53.5, is also climbing and at a slightly faster rate than April's 52.0 in what is a positive indication for manufacturing payrolls in tomorrow's employment report. In a sign of confidence, ISM's sample is slowly building inventories of raw materials while the assessment of finished inventories is that they're at just about the right levels. Strength in the government's factory data has been uneven, unlike the strength of ISM's sample which is steady and impressive.

Recent History Of This Indicator
After beating Econoday's consensus for seven straight months, the ISM manufacturing index fell short of expectations in April. Yet on its own, the April report was very solid and included sizable gains for new orders and also production, consistent with what turned out to be strength in the government's industrial production report. The sample's backlogs are building and delivery times slowing, both positive indications for the factory sector. Forecasters are calling for a steady and solid 54.6 in May vs April's 54.8.

Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM manufacturing index [formerly known as the NAPM Survey] is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/35/16/17/38/19/110/211/112/1
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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