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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 7/3/2017 10:00:00 AM For Jun, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level54.9 55.1 54.0  to 56.0 57.8 

Highlights
ISM's manufacturing sample is back on fire, with the index jumping nearly 3 points to a much higher-than-expected 57.8. This reading, which tracks composite growth, is 1 tenth above February this year and is the strongest since August 2014.

Employment and supplier deliveries show the most significant change. At 57.2, employment is outside of March's 58.9 but is otherwise the highest since June 2011. This is a positive signal for Friday's factory payroll data. Supplier deliveries, at 57.0, slowed sharply in the month to indicate demand-related congestion in the supply chain.

New orders are at 63.5, which is very strong, with production also very strong at 62.4. Backlog orders are another highlight, extending a rare run in the mid-to-high 50s, at 57.0 in June. Export orders are also strong with import orders on the rise. Inventory data show little change.

If this report tracked better with government data, expectations would be building for a second-half surge in the factory sector. But this report like other private data, with the notable exclusion of the PMI manufacturing report the latest edition of which was released earlier this morning, have been pointing to unusually strong levels of activity all year long, acceleration that has yet to appear in actual data from the government.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The ISM manufacturing index has cooled from 57 readings early in the year to 54 readings in April and May. But key details of the report have remained very strong including new orders and backlog orders where gains point to future strength for the sample's general activity. Forecasters are calling for 55.1 in June vs May's 54.9.

Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM manufacturing index [formerly known as the NAPM Survey] is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/35/16/17/38/19/110/211/112/1
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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