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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 11/1/2017 10:00:00 AM For Oct, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level60.8 59.5 58.6  to 61.1 58.7 

Highlights
ISM manufacturing's sample reports only slight cooling, at a still unusually strong composite of 58.7 in October vs September's 13-year high of 60.8. New orders remain the stand-out positive in the report, at 63.4 for only a 1.2 percent dip from September's 4-year high at 64.6. Export orders, like those in this morning's earlier PMI manufacturing report, are a strong positive. Employment is also unusually strong, at 59.8 and only 5 tenths lower from the 6-1/2 year high in the last report.

Delivery times, delayed by hurricane effects, continue to lengthen but to a slightly lesser degree which points at improvement. Pulling down the composite are inventories of raw materials which contracted in the month in what likely reflects delivery delays. Input costs remain very elevated, again another hurricane effect.

Backlog orders continue to build and production continues to hum along. But production in the Federal Reserve industrial production report has yet to show anywhere near the strength of the production reading in this report -- at least not yet. With durable goods orders posting two straight strong months, the signals from private data like today's report are growing more convincing.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The ISM manufacturing index has been surging this year, beating Econoday's consensus for 5 straight months and often, as in September, by very wide margins. September's 60.8 marked a 13-year best though hurricane-related delivery delays did skew the score higher. Yet strength has been very evident with new orders at a 4-year high and employment at a 6-1/2 year high. The Econoday consensus for October calls for cooling, to 59.5.

Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM manufacturing index [formerly known as the NAPM Survey] is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/35/16/17/38/19/110/211/112/1
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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