2017 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 12/1/2017 10:00:00 AM For Nov, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level58.7 58.4 57.5  to 59.5 58.2 

Highlights
A welcome improvement in delivery times, which is a subtraction in the headline composite index, masks another exceptionally strong ISM manufacturing report. November's composite headline, down 5 tenths to 58.2, doesn't do justice to the strength of the report where new orders, which includes strength for exports, are up 6 tenths and well over 60 at 64.0 while backlog orders are steady at 55.0 which is very strong for this reading. Production is up a sharp 2.9 points to 63.9 with employment near 60 at 59.7. These are very strong results.

Pulling the composite down is improvement in delivery times which had backed up significantly during this year's heavy hurricane season. Not all anecdotal reports like this one have been reporting improvement in times though this result should ease concerns that supply chain issues could constrain holiday activity. But constraints are still very apparent with input costs very elevated at 65.5.

ISM's sample has been on fire all year, correctly predicting a rise for government data that has gradually emerged. The factory sector looks ready to end the year on a strong note and offer an important contribution to fourth-quarter GDP.

Consensus Outlook
The ISM manufacturing index has been surging this year, having beaten Econoday's consensus for five of the last six months. New orders including export sales were major positives in the last report as was employment. The Econoday consensus for November calls for modest slowing, to 58.4 from 58.7.

Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM manufacturing index [formerly known as the NAPM Survey] is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/35/16/17/38/19/110/211/112/1
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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