2017 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 4/5/2017 10:00:00 AM For Mar, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level57.6 57.0 56.0  to 58.0 55.2 

Highlights
Slowing in employment is a warning signal in the March ISM non-manufacturing report where the headline composite slowed to a 5-month low of 55.2. Employment growth slowed abruptly in the month, down 3.6 points to 51.6 and a 7-month low. This contrasts sharply with ADP's very strong report earlier this morning and underlines concern that March's heavy weather may have held down the labor market.

New orders also slowed in the month, down 2.3 points to what however is still a very strong 58.9. New export orders are the standout positive in the report, up 5.5 points to 62.5 which is the first 60 score in 4 years and the best result since May 2007. Backlog orders also slowed but again not by much, down 1 point at 53.0 which remains constructive for this reading. Business activity also slowed and inventories, in another indication of slowing, were drawn down. Supplier deliveries also slowed but only slightly yet still could be a hint of weather effects.

The big gain for export orders is a reminder that foreign demand for U.S. services is very strong in what is a major contrast with soft demand for U.S. goods. But the overall slowing centered in employment makes this report an unwelcome signal of weakness going into Friday's jobs data.

Recent History Of This Indicator
ISM non-manufacturing is perhaps the most consistently strong of any advance indicator, holding at a very solid monthly growth rate in the mid-50s and rising a very sharp 1.1 points in February to 57.6. New orders have been over 60 for 3 straight months at the same time that backlogs have been rising which points to broad strength in March activity. The Econoday consensus for March is for a 6 tenths dip to 57.0.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/33/34/55/36/57/68/39/610/411/312/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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