2017 Economic Calendar
POWERED BY  econoday logo
U.S. & Intl Recaps   |   Event Definitions   |   Today's Calendar   |   

ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 5/3/2017 10:00:00 AM For Apr, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level55.2 55.8 54.1  to 56.6 57.5 

Highlights
Two different samples and two very different results from PMI services, which was released earlier this morning and was very soft, and ISM non-manufacturing which is pointing to sharp acceleration. New orders are the ISM's standout, jumping 4.3 points to the best level in nearly 12 years at 63.2. The headline index is up 2.3 points to a 57.5 level that is nearly 1 full point over Econoday's high estimate. Strength in this report is getting an increasing boost from exports.

Other positives include backlog orders which are up for a third month in a row and inventories which are building. Delivery times are slowing in another sign of strong demand and input costs are rising. But one detail that is not positive is employment which slowed slightly to a subdued 51.4.

With new orders over 60 in three of the last five months, this report has been very strong and failed to pick up what was surprising and significant economic slowing in the first quarter which was signaled, at least to a degree, by the PMI services report. But one detail both this report and PMI services do agree on is that hiring during April was slow. This is not a positive indication for Friday's employment report where solid growth is the expectation.

Recent History Of This Indicator
ISM non-manufacturing slowed noticeably in March and offered an accurate advance indication for what turned out to be a generally weak month for the economy. And the report accurately forecast March's abrupt slowing in payroll growth as well with the report's employment index down sharply to 51.6, a level only modestly above breakeven 50 and the lowest in 7 months. But most readings in the report remained very strong in March including new orders at 58.9 and export orders at a 10-year high of 62.5. The Econoday consensus for April points to strength, at 55.8 vs March's 55.2.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/33/34/55/36/57/68/39/610/411/312/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


powered by  [Econoday]