2017 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 10/4/2017 10:00:00 AM For Sep, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level55.3 55.5 54.0  to 56.2 59.8 

Highlights
Orders and employment continued to rise through September in ISM's non-manufacturing sample which is showing no worrisome effects from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The headline index jumped to 59.8 for the highest score in more than 3 years. New orders, that include strength for exports, jumped nearly 5 points to a robust 61.3 level that was last exceeded in April this year. Backlog orders jumped 2.5 points to 56.0 which helped employment rise 6 tenths to 56.8 with both these readings the strongest since May this year.

Hurricane effects slowed deliveries very sharply, up 7.5 points to 58.0 and are a major contributing factor to the strength in the headline index (slower deliveries are positives in the index's calculation). Input prices also show hurricane effects, up more than 9 points to 66.3 for the highest reading in 5-1/2 years. Inventories continued to build but at a slightly slower pace in a likely effect tied to hurricane-related transportation snags.

The gain in employment is a positive indication for Friday's employment report while the strength in new orders and backlogs point to a strong ending for the third quarter and strength ahead for the fourth quarter. Yet this report, based on sample sizes that aren't specifically listed and responses that are voluntary, has been strong all year, often running in excess of actual service sector growth.

Recent History Of This Indicator
ISM non-manufacturing had been surging earlier in the year but began to moderate through most of the summer. Yet readings were still very strong with new orders, business activity and employment all in the upper 50s. Econoday's call for the September headline is 55.5 vs August's 55.3.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/33/34/55/36/57/68/39/610/411/312/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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