2017 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 12/5/2017 10:00:00 AM For Nov, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level60.1 59.0 58.0  to 59.7 57.4 

Highlights
Growth cooled noticeably in ISM's non-manufacturing report with is probably a plus given unsustainably high levels in prior reports. At 57.4, November's composite score came in below the low end of expectations but is still however a very strong rate of growth.

Most readings eased by several points with new orders at 58.7, employment at 55.3, and backlog orders at 51.5. Export orders also eased, to 57.0. Delivery delays are improving which is a negative in the calculation of the composite with input price pressures easing slightly. Inventories rose but this is not a key factor as only about 1/5 of this sample even carries inventories.

One reading that held above the 60 threshold is business activity at 61.4 which is a reminder that the nation's output continues to expand at a solid rate. Yet the overall results, along with this morning's PMI services index, do point to slowing for the bulk of the economy in November and also fit in with slowing among several of the regional factory reports during the month. Note that today's ISM report tracks, unlike the PMI services, construction and mining which were mixed with the former expanding but the latter contracting in November.

Recent History Of This Indicator
ISM non-manufacturing posted its best composite score of the expansion in October, at 60.1 for a peak last matched at the height of the prior expansion in 2004. New orders including export orders are unusually strong. Backlogs have been building and employment is at a 6-month high. Only limited slowing, to 59.0 from 60.1, is the Econoday consensus for November.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/33/34/55/36/57/68/39/610/411/312/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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