2017 Economic Calendar
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Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey  
Released On 2/16/2017 8:30:00 AM For Feb, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level23.6 19.3 15.0  to 24.0 43.3 

Highlights
The strength of the Philadelphia Fed's general business conditions index is impossible to exaggerate. February's 43.3 is not a misprint. It's the strongest since very far back, since January 1984. Yes, this index is a response to a single question on monthly sentiment but its enormous strength is confirmed by a very tangible reading, and that is the new orders index which jumped 12 points in the month to 38 which itself is a record or should be one if it is not.

Other readings in this report are less spectacular but very strong including a big build for backlogs, a healthy draw for inventories, understandable slowing in delivery times, and noticeable pressures in costs and positive traction for selling prices.

As an advance indicator, this report rivals the ISM manufacturing survey in importance. These readings point squarely at 2017 acceleration for a factory sector that limped through 2016.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The Philadelphia Fed report has been sending perhaps the strongest signals of any advance indicator. The index is on a 6-month winning streak with highlights led by standout strength for new orders which jumped 11 points in December to 26.0. Forecasters see the headline index easing back to 19.3 from January's 23.6.

Definition
The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Philadelphia Fed''s business outlook survey is a good leading indicator for the index of industrial production. It is reported in the third week of the month and thus has a lead time of nearly three weeks.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/192/163/164/205/186/157/208/179/2110/1911/1612/21
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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