2017 Economic Calendar
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Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey  
Released On 3/16/2017 8:30:00 AM For Mar, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level43.3 30.0 26.5  to 41.2 32.8 

Highlights
Robust is a modest description of activity right now in the Mid-Atlantic manufacturing sector, at least based on the Philly Fed index which came in at 32.8 and above Econoday expectations for 30.0. New orders continue to pour in, up 6 tenths this month to 38.6 for the strongest month since November 1983. Orders have been accelerating for the last 6 months and are filling up backlog orders which, up nearly 4 points in the month to 14.4, are at their highest level since February 1993.

Production is in full force with the workweek at 18.5 which is the highest for this reading since February 2004. At 32.9, shipments are the highest they've been since July 2004. Inventories are needed and are building and delivery times are slowing in what hints at congestion in the supply chain, congestion that is likely contributing to price pressures. Cost inputs are at 40.7, which was last exceeded in May 2011, and selling prices are at 20.6 which outside of January's 26.8 are also the highest since May 2011.

All this is very positive for employment of course which is up more than 6 points to 17.5 for the best rate of hiring since November 2014. This report, followed by Empire State, have been signaling breakout acceleration for the nation's factory sector. A breakout, however, that has yet to be confirmed by definitive economic data out of Washington.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The Philadelphia Fed report has been running at the highest levels since the 1980s with exceptional acceleration for new orders the most important plus. Yet all this strength, first signaled by this report late last year then followed by the host of other regional reports, has yet to appear in data out of Washington which have remained mostly flat. Forecasters see the general business conditions index in March easing but only slightly, to 30.0 from February's extraordinary reading of 43.3.

Definition
The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Philadelphia Fed''s business outlook survey is a good leading indicator for the index of industrial production. It is reported in the third week of the month and thus has a lead time of nearly three weeks.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/192/163/164/205/186/157/208/179/2110/1911/1612/21
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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