2017 Economic Calendar
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Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey  
Released On 9/21/2017 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level18.9 18.0 12.0  to 20.0 23.8 

Highlights
There are few hints of indirect hurricane dislocations in the Philly Fed report where strength is simply enormous. The headline index jumped nearly 5 points in September to 23.8 which is well beyond Econoday's high estimate.

New orders are pouring in this month, up more than 9 points to 29.5 for among the very strongest readings of the 8-year economic expansion. Unfilled orders are at 17.0, up 3.5 points to indicate one of the very strongest monthly builds in the 50 year history of this report. Shipments are moving out the gates at a frenzy, at 37.8 which again is one of the best on record.

One area where hurricane effects may be at play is delivery times which are lengthening sharply this month to 14.5 and again one of the highest readings on record. Prices are showing unusually strong pressure with costs at 34.4 and selling prices up more than 9 points this month to 22.8 which is one of the strongest readings in 30 years.

The spectacular results don't stop as the 6-month outlook is up nearly 13 points to 55.2 for one of the best readings of the expansion. One area that this is not rising, however, and that's employment where growth slowed 4.5 points to 6.6. Weakness here, judging by the all strength, may only reflect lack of available workers.

This report, among all the regional reports, has consistently showed the most strength this year, strength however that contrasts with little better than mixed results in actual factory data at the national level. This is a reminder that the Philly Fed's results are based on voluntary responses from what is often a small sample numbering no more than a couple of hundred companies.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing sample has been draining the dictionary of superlatives since late last year, showing enormous strength even at the same time that hard data on the factory sector have been mixed. The sample in August reported another month of very sharp growth in new orders and the largest build in backlog orders in 25 years. The Mid-Atlantic states were not affected directly by Hurricane Harvey but prices and delivery times could show pressure as they did in the Empire State report. The September consensus for the Philly Fed index is 18.0 vs August's 18.9.

Definition
The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Philadelphia Fed''s business outlook survey is a good leading indicator for the index of industrial production. It is reported in the third week of the month and thus has a lead time of nearly three weeks.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/192/163/164/205/186/157/208/179/2110/1911/1612/21
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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