2017 Economic Calendar
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Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey  
Released On 10/19/2017 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level23.8 20.2 15.0  to 25.8 27.9 

Highlights
The Philly Fed report continues to post very unusual levels of strength. October's headline of 27.9 is nearly 8 points above Econoday's consensus and more than 2 points above the high estimate. Employment, at 30.6, is a record in 48 years of this report's data. The unusual strength of demand together perhaps with lingering hurricane effects on the supply chain are making for the longest delivery delays on record, at 21.6.

Other October readings are also unusually strong but less so than September: new orders 19.6 vs September's 29.5, unfilled orders at 10.9 vs 17.0, shipments 24.4 vs 37.8, the 6-month outlook 46.4 vs 55.2. Philly's sample is building up inventories while price data show a 7-month high for inputs costs, at 38.1, but a dip back in selling prices to a still very solid 14.2.

This report together with Empire State's report on Monday are extensions of what have been unusually strong indications from regional reports, results that contrast sharply with much less strength in factory orders and outright contraction in manufacturing production. It's important to remember that regional reports are based on small sizes where responses are always voluntary. Still the strength of the regional reports, if nothing else, is pointing squarely at improvement ahead, at least to some degree, for the nation's factory sector.

Recent History Of This Indicator
There are no words left to describe the intensity of strength being report by respondents to the Philly Fed manufacturing report. The headline, at 23.8 in September and well beyond Econoday's high estimate, only scratched the surface as new orders poured in at one of the strongest rates of the expansion with backlog orders and shipments among the very strongest in the 50-year history of this report. The consensus for the October index is 20.2.

Definition
The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Philadelphia Fed''s business outlook survey is a good leading indicator for the index of industrial production. It is reported in the third week of the month and thus has a lead time of nearly three weeks.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/192/163/164/205/186/157/208/179/2110/1911/1612/21
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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