2017 Economic Calendar
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Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey  
Released On 12/21/2017 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level22.7 21.8 17.5  to 25.0 26.2 

Highlights
Respondents to the Philly Fed's manufacturing sample are reporting new acceleration from an already enormously strong rate of growth. At 26.2 in December, the general business expectations easily beat Econoday's high estimate for the best reading since October and among the best of the ongoing expansion.

New orders are pouring in this month, up more than 8 points to an unusually strong 29.8. The build in unfilled orders slowed slightly but also remains unusually strong at 10.8. Shipments are moving quickly at 23.4 despite congestion in the supply chain as deliveries slowed once again. Input costs remain elevated and selling prices are showing traction.

Employment is also strong yet, at 18.1, is still down from the two prior months which may hint at lack of available labor. Optimism on the general outlook rose more than 3 points to 53.5, again one of the best readings of the expansion.

Most indications are pointing to a strong factory contribution to the fourth-quarter economy with this report once again the strongest of any.

Recent History Of This Indicator
A little cooling is welcome when it comes to the Philly Fed manufacturing index as it was in November when the headline index slowed slightly to what is still a very strong 22.7. New orders and shipments were both just over 20 in November with unfilled orders building sharply, at 17.0 for a 6.1 point gain. Respondents in this sample have been struggling to keep up with the work as employment, at 22.6 in November, fell 8 points from October's 48-year record. Econoday's consensus for December's headline is 21.8.

Definition
The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Philadelphia Fed''s business outlook survey is a good leading indicator for the index of industrial production. It is reported in the third week of the month and thus has a lead time of nearly three weeks.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/192/163/164/205/186/157/208/179/2110/1911/1612/21
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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