2017 Economic Calendar
POWERED BY  econoday logo
U.S. & Intl Recaps   |   Event Definitions   |   Today's Calendar   |   

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI  
Released On 7/25/2017 9:00:00 AM For May, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
20-city, SA - M/M0.3 %-0.2 %0.3 %0.0 % to 0.7 %0.1 %
20-city, NSA - M/M0.9 %1.0 %0.8 %0.6 % to 1.0 %0.8 %
20-city, NSA - Yr/Yr5.7 %5.8 %5.8 %5.8 % to 6.0 %5.7 %

Highlights
Home prices in yesterday's existing home sales report were very strong, in contrast to today's reports from both Case-Shiller and FHFA where moderation is the theme. Case-Shiller's 20-city adjusted index inched only 0.1 percent higher in May vs Econoday expectations for 0.3 percent. Underlining recent softness is a sharp downward revision to April, now at minus 0.2 percent vs an initial plus 0.3 percent (in an offset, March is revised to plus 0.9 percent from plus 0.5 percent).

Emerging weakness is clear with 6 of 20 cities, for the second month in a row, posting contraction including sharp declines in May for New York, Boston and Chicago.

Unadjusted data show a 0.8 percent gain in May which, however, is a strong month for housing activity (hence the much lower reading for the adjusted figure). Year-on-year, Case-Shiller unadjusted prices came in at plus 5.7 percent which is 1 tenth below both expectations and April's rate. March and February saw this reading peak at 5.9 percent.

The FHFA house price index, also released this morning, rose only 0.4 percent which is also under expectations. Both FHFA and Case-Shiller have large sample sizes and rigorous methodology and are convincing offsets to the price indications in yesterday's existing home sales report.

Home prices have perhaps been the leading strength of the economy but have, however, been holding down affordability and pushing first-time buyers out of the market. Moderation in prices may be a negative for immediate household wealth but is probably a positive for the housing sector.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Case-Shiller prices topped out early in the year and have been moderating since. The consensus for the 20-city adjusted index is only 0.3 percent in May, the same gain as April. May is a busy month for home sales and is reflected in the consensus for the unadjusted monthly index where the consensus is for a 0.9 percent gain. Year-on-year, the unadjusted index is expected to come in at 5.8 percent in what would be a 1 tenth gain.

Definition
The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the U.S. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home re-sales. The expanded 20-city measure is the key series. The original series (still available) covered 10 cities. A national index is published quarterly. The indexes are based on single-family dwellings with two or more sales transactions. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are published monthly on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 AM ET. The latest data are reported with a two-month lag. For example data released in January 2016 are for November. Note that S&P, citing large seasonal swings in the housing sector and the risk of adjustment inaccuracies, urges readers to track unadjusted data in this report.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is based on repeat transactions. That is, appreciation or depreciation is for same houses resold. This index is probably the best measure of changes in home prices. While it covers the gamut of types of houses sold, it is limited to metropolitan areas.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/312/283/284/255/306/277/258/299/2610/3111/2812/27
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct
 


powered by  [Econoday]