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S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI  
Released On 9/26/2017 9:00:00 AM For Jul, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
20-city, SA - M/M0.1 %0.3 %0.1 % to 0.4 %0.3 %
20-city, NSA - M/M0.7 %0.7 %
20-city, NSA - Yr/Yr5.7 %5.6 %5.9 %5.8 % to 5.9 %5.8 %

Highlights
Case-Shiller home prices firmed in July, to a 0.3 percent adjusted gain for the 20-city index. The trend is favorable with the year-on-year rate rising 2 tenths to an unadjusted 5.8 percent and in line with other home price readings which are also roughly at the 6 percent rate.

This report is for July and looking at cities in Texas and Florida offers a base of comparison for pending hurricane effects in August and September. Dallas was at a 7.4 percent yearly rate in July with Tampa at 7.1 percent and Miami at 5.2 percent. The 20 cities covered do not include Houston.

Leading the list continues to be Seattle, at 13.5 percent, with Portland lagging in 2nd place at 7.6 percent. Tail-enders continue to be Chicago and Washington DC, both at 3.4 percent, with Cleveland and New York City only slightly less weak.

Home prices are a principal source of growth in household wealth along with stock prices and much less so for wages. But the negative side to strong home-price appreciation is lack of affordability which hurts sales in general especially for first-time buyers. Note that the unadjusted monthly rate rose 0.7 percent in the month which reflects the relative strength of housing demand during the warmth of the summer months.

Consensus Outlook
Case-Shiller home prices have been firm but slowing held down by weakness centered in Chicago, Cleveland and New York. In contrast, western cities led by Seattle and Portland have been strong along with Miami and Tampa in Florida. Speaking of Florida, Case-Shiller will gain special attention in coming reports for August and September that will include data on cities hit by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. For July, the consensus for the 20-city adjusted index is plus 0.3 percent vs a 0.1 percent gain in June. Year-on-year, the unadjusted index is expected to come in at 5.9 percent in what would be a 2 tenth increase from 5.7 percent in June.

Definition
The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the nation. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is based on repeat transactions. That is, appreciation or depreciation is for same houses resold. This index is probably the best measure of changes in home prices. While it covers the gamut of types of houses sold, it is limited to metropolitan areas.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/312/283/284/255/306/277/258/299/2610/3111/2812/26
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct
 


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