2017 Economic Calendar
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International Trade in Goods  
Released On 11/28/2017 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Balance$-64.1 B$-64.8 B$-66.0 B to $-63.0 B$-68.3 B
Exports % change0.7 %1.6 %-1.0 %
Imports % change0.9 %1.3 %1.5 %

With housing and manufacturing showing strength the outlook for fourth-quarter GDP was building, until that is this morning's advance trade and inventory data. October's goods deficit was much higher-than-expected, at $68.3 billion for a very sizable $4.2 billion increase from September. The details speak to weakness with exports down 1.0 percent, reflecting declines for food products and capital goods, while imports rose 1.5 percent on increases in industrial supplies and, once again, consumer goods.

Inventory data for October show draws for both wholesalers and retailers, at minus 0.4 percent and minus 0.1 percent respectively which are both negative for GDP.

Both trade, where the deficit had been narrowing, and inventories, where builds had been rising, were positives for second- and third-quarter GDP but the opening fourth-quarter look at these two components point to understandable give back.

Consensus Outlook
The goods deficit in October is expected to widen to a consensus $64.8 billion vs $64.1 billion in September. Looking back at September, imports rose 0.9 percent on increases for capital goods, industrial supplies and food products. Exports rose 0.7 percent but strength was isolated to industrial supplies with capital goods, consumer goods, and vehicles all down. Also released with the report will be advance October data for both wholesale inventories and retail inventories which, like net exports, are also GDP inputs.

The Census Bureau is now publishing an advance report on U.S. international trade in goods. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will incorporate these data into its estimates of exports and imports for the advance GDP estimates. This is expected to reduce the size of revisions to GDP growth in the second estimates.

Note that data in the advance goods report are accounted for on a census basis and can differ slightly from subsequent data in the international trade report where goods data are accounted for on a balance of payment basis to adjust for changes in ownership that can occur without goods passing into or out of the US.  Why Investors Care

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/283/284/275/256/287/278/289/2810/2611/2812/28
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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