2017 Economic Calendar
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International Trade in Goods  
Released On 12/28/2017 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Balance$-68.3 B$-68.1 B$-67.7 B$-69.5 B to $-66.0 B$-69.7 B
Exports % change-1.0 %-0.4 %3.0 %
Imports % change1.5 %1.8 %2.7 %

Net exports look to be holding back fourth-quarter GDP following a second month of deep deficit in cross-border goods trade, at $69.7 billion in November following a revised $68.1 billion deficit in October. The monthly average for the third-quarter was much lower, at $63.8 billion.

But there is very good news in the report and that's exports which rose a very strong 3.0 percent in November in to $133.7 billion, led by strong improvement in the key category of capital goods at a 5.6 percent monthly increase, vehicles at a gain of 7.5 percent, and consumer goods which rose 4.0 percent.

Imports, however, also rose, up 2.7 percent in the month to $203.4 billion with industrial supplies up 4.7 percent, consumer goods up 4.2 percent, and capital goods up 2.6 percent.

This report also includes preliminary data on November inventories, up 0.7 percent at the wholesale level in a what will be a plus for fourth-quarter GDP that is neutralized in part by only a small 0.1 percent build for retail inventories.

The gain in wholesale inventories is a plus but two months of a rising goods deficit will take some of the shine off fourth-quarter GDP. Still, the gain in exports is a very important positive while the gain in imports of capital goods, though a subtraction for GDP, does underscore improvement underway in domestic business investment.

Consensus Outlook
The goods deficit in November is expected to narrow to a consensus $67.7 billion and only modestly below what was an unusually wide $68.1 billion in October ($68.3 billion initially reported). Looking back at October, exports fell 1.0 percent on declines in food products and capital goods while imports rose 1.5 percent on increases for industrial supplies and consumer goods. Also released with the report will be advance November data for both wholesale inventories and retail inventories which, like net exports, are also GDP inputs.

The Census Bureau is now publishing an advance report on U.S. international trade in goods. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will incorporate these data into its estimates of exports and imports for the advance GDP estimates. This is expected to reduce the size of revisions to GDP growth in the second estimates.

Note that data in the advance goods report are accounted for on a census basis and can differ slightly from subsequent data in the international trade report where goods data are accounted for on a balance of payment basis to adjust for changes in ownership that can occur without goods passing into or out of the US.  Why Investors Care

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/283/284/275/256/287/278/289/2810/2611/2812/28
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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